From insurrection to resurrection, the second coming of Donald Trump

Donald Trump getting elected for a second term has to count among the greatest political comebacks of all time. His adversaries – nay, his enemies – threw everything, including the kitchen sink, to stop him. He was vilified, demonised, and criticised on an industrial scale.
When that wasn’t enough, a vicious lawfare campaign, bordering on persecution, was launched against him to convict and imprison him on charges that otherwise would not lead to anything more than a slap on the wrist. He was also accused of – and nearly buried for – the alleged insurrection of January 6, 2021. But none of this, not even an assassination attempt caused by making him into a hate figure, was enough to stop him from making a comeback. He managed to strike a chord with his voters in a way his snobbish opponents couldn’t. Because of their arrogance, elitism, superciliousness, and their tendency to wallow in the ivory-towered echo chambers of their own ‘captive media’, his opponents just couldn’t read the room and connect with the real concerns and insecurities of the people.
While the intolerant and tyrannical left-liberals and the ‘whacky wokes’ in the US will have a meltdown, the rest of the world will also brace for what Trump 2.0 could mean. Trump’s second term is coming at a time when the entire international system is in flux. The US might still be a hyperpower, but it is losing its edge, and its influence is starting to wane. New alliances and alignments are emerging, challenging the old Western – or, more accurately, US-dominated – world order.
Trump will, therefore, have his task cut out for him. He will need to build alliances with other countries without rubbing them the wrong way, as doing so could push them to seek viable alternatives to a US-led global order. This could open up space for India to deepen its relationship with the US. At the same time, there will be many areas where India will have to negotiate harder – giving some, taking some, especially on trade and tariff issues, perhaps even on visas – to keep moving forward.
That Trump is going to be transactional is not necessarily a bad thing. International relations are, by definition, transactional and based on interests. When interests converge, countries put fancy labels – historical, ideological, traditional, strategic, and so on – as window dressing. Transactionalism means being ready to negotiate: giving something on trade in exchange for gains in security or technology, or agreeing to cut tariffs on certain products in return for concessions in others. The fact that India-US ties are not limited to a single-issue relationship works for both countries. While there is a security and strategic dimension to the bilateral relationship, there is also a robust trade, technology, and people-to-people component that provides room for manoeuvre in their negotiations. India should, therefore, approach the US with confidence, not diffidence and defensiveness.
While it may be premature to predict the trajectory of Trump’s second term – especially given the unpredictability and erratic behaviour of his first term – he appears to be entering it with a more mellow, mature, and measured, and less abrasiveness. He may be disruptive on trade but is likely to refrain from interventionism on other issues. The moralising, sermonising, finger-wagging activism, and democracy lectures typical of American Democratic administrations may not be as pronounced. Nor are we likely to see regime-change operations or attempts to destabilise governments, as seen in Bangladesh.
Trump’s anti-war stance might work in India’s favour if he seeks some kind of detente with Russia. The relentless and needless pressure on India for not breaking with Russia could ease. There is some speculation – or perhaps wishful thinking – India could play a role in bringing the war in Ukraine to an end. But if at all India is invited to play a role, it should not do so for free. This opportunity should be used strategically to secure something substantial, rather than just goodwill, which doesn’t last long or goes unpunished.
The Middle East is another theatre that is critical for India and where Trump will focus, especially on the tensions between Israel and Iran. Chances are that instead of kinetic military operations, Trump may squeeze Iran economically to compel compliance – a strategy with debatable effectiveness. In the Indo-Pacific, India’s influence could grow, not only because the QUAD alliance is expected to strengthen, but also due to potential economic tensions between the US and China. However, India will need to get its act together to capitalise on this trade war and integrate itself into international supply chains.
Without reforming the ‘inspector raj’ and the tyranny of local bureaucracies, and laws and regulations, India could miss this opportunity. Beyond the economics of the likely US-China spat, India can also benefit in the strategic space. There is an interesting dynamic that is already at play. China tried to intimidate India – through incidents in Doklam, Galwan, and other areas – from getting too close to the US. This, however, had the opposite effect. China is now trying to become more reasonable to ‘incentivise’ India from going further into the US embrace. Clearly, this is a situation India can capitalise on – keeping China unsettled, benefiting from closer ties with the US and its allies, and increasing our own capacities and capabilities in the process.
Finally, there is the whole chemistry thing between the US President-elect and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Despite the very different backgrounds they come from, Trump has always spoken well and fondly of Modi. He knows Modi is a tough negotiator, but also someone keen on building and deepening India’s relations with the US.
There is a good chance that some of Trump’s Cabinet will have people well-disposed towards India – Tulsi Gabbard, and Vivek Ramaswamy. Also, Vice President JD Vance has an Indian connection – Second Lady Usha Vance. These are equities that can smoothen out any rough edges that may appear in the bilateral relationship. All things considered, India has a lot to look forward to during Trump’s second term, notwithstanding some big and small bumps along the way.
(Sushant Sareen is a Senior Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation)