A closer look at Saturday’s BYU vs. ASU Big 12 showdown

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This Saturday in Tempe, Arizona, BYU will play perhaps the biggest game in the Kalani Sitake era with a Big 12 title game on the line and a potential CFP berth.
BYU has been labeled the No. 1 overachiever in college football by Kelley Ford. He gives BYU a 44% chance to finish 11-1 and believes a 10-2 BYU team should be given consideration for an at-large bid. But only winning will allow BYU to reach its goal. The Cougars control their own destiny.
Face it, Jake Retzlaff had a bad game in the Kansas loss. That happens. He’s not perfect. But he is a leader and playmaker and he has shown not only marked improvement but a great competitive spirit. It will take him playing his best and BYU’s offense changing its trajectory for the Cougars to beat ASU.
BYU’s issue in the Kansas loss was red-zone TD scoring. Moving the ball on Kansas was not an issue. In eight possessions the Cougars got to the red zone four times. If they’d scored TDs three of those trips, they would have easily won because the defense held a hot Kansas offense to its lowest output (yards, score) of the season.
ASU presents a bold challenge with quarterback Sam Leavitt, who is not only a 61% passer but the team’s second-leading rusher with 455 yards. Running back Cam Skattebo is the Big 12′s most dangerous rusher with 1,074 yards and 11 touchdowns. Leavitt and Skattebo have combined for 15 of the team’s 19 touchdowns on the ground.
Here are our stories from BYU’s first loss:
Question of the week: BYU obviously did have an emotional hangover after the thrilling win over Utah and losing to Kansas at home. Will the Cougars be able to reset in time for a critical playoff-type game at Arizona State on Saturday?
Jay Drew: After coming out flat against Kansas and failing to execute during the game’s most important plays, I expect BYU to play much better Saturday against Arizona State. In particular, I expect BYU’s offense, and quarterback Jake Retzlaff, to rebound from a lackluster performance and play better in Tempe.
That said, I am not picking BYU to win this game. Arizona State has more momentum, more confidence and the home-field advantage. I think that will be enough to carry the Sun Devils to the win. Obviously, this BYU team has proved me wrong in the past, and Jay Hill’s defense has the ability to keep the Cougars in every game. I just think the Cougars have peaked a little bit, especially on offense.
One aspect to BYU’s offense that has been missing the past two games is quarterback Jake Retzlaff’s timely runs to pick up first downs. That needs to return for the Cougars to have a chance in what is shaping up to be the most important game of the Kalani Sitake era.
Prediction: Arizona State 28, BYU 17
Dick Harmon: Someone reported that of BYU’s last 27 possessions, the offense has scored just three touchdowns. After scoring just one touchdown in a loss to Kansas, it might be a trend and if that’s the case the Cougars will lose to ASU Saturday in Tempe.
But BYU is ranked No. 1 in the Big 12 in scoring special teams points, and the offense remains among the best in the Big 12 in scoring. Offensive coordinator Aaron Roderick has his work cut out for him in turning around a trend of failing in the red zone, something the Cougars have excelled at most all the season. Defensively, Jay Hill’s schemes limited Kansas to its worst output this season — that counts for something.
This is a playoff game. The winner has a pathway to the Big 12 championship game and BYU must score at least 24 points to have a chance of beating ASU on its home field. Can they do that?
Of course. But Retzlaff will have to put aside his red-zone struggles against Kansas and lead this offense to TDs instead of field goals. The trend is against BYU right now. If BYU is indeed a top-10- team — which critics say they are not — they win this game because they are an overall good and better team. But if this red-zone slump continues, they will lose. I’ll give Sitake’s culture the benefit of the doubt. They’ll hand ASU their first home loss of the season.
Prediction: BYU 27, ASU 24
This has been a positive fall for BYU sports, with football ranked 14th and atop the Big 12 standings, but there’s more. Men’s basketball is 4-0; women’s cross-country is ranked No. 1 in the country, as is the men’s team. The women’s volleyball program is ranked 24th and soccer is No. 19 and made the NCAA Tournament.
This past weekend BYU hosted AJ Dybantsa, the No. 1 high school recruit in the country, and also had Rival’s No. 1 ranked prep quarterback Ryder Lyons on campus. Lyons brought his high school coach and five of his teammates, who are highly recruited prospects.
Comments from Deseret News readers:
This talk about firing coaches is nonsense. They are 9-1. The coaches aren’t going anywhere. Yes they should have won this game but they left too many plays out there: Retzlaff has made a lot of big plays this year but missed too many on Saturday: The overthrown pass to a wide open Lassiter, the underthrown pass to the tight end … both could’ve led to TDs. They’ve had a lot of things bounce their way this year but it caught up to them in this game.
If you leave the game close, a call by the refs or a lucky bounce can be the difference. Make more positive plays … you still control your own destiny.
— archairquarterback
Not an alum of BYU or a big fan, but I think the fans and commenters need to look at this in context. Playing in a higher-level conference is a lot more difficult than playing as an independent. There are only two undefeated teams in larger conference right now with a good chance it will be only one after this weekend. Injuries pile up toward the end of the season in conference play. There’s lots of film on BYU now that other teams will use to scout out tendencies. BYU has done pretty well and has a pretty good chance of making it to the NCAA playoff. Are they good enough to win it all. Definitely not this year, but it has definitely been a good year for them in this transitional phase of athletics.
— Spaulding55